TUFTS UNIVERSITY

Economics 13	Professor Thomas Downes
Statistics	Office: Joyce Cummings Center (JCC) 661
Mon. Wed.  1:30-2:45 PM	Phone: 617-627-2687
https://canvas.tufts.edu/courses/48789	E-Mail: thomas.downes@tufts.edu
	Office Hours: Mon. 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM, Tues. 1:30  - 2:30 PM, Wed. 3:30 - 4:30 PM, or by appointment

Description:
This course is intended to introduce you to some basic statistical concepts that are useful in business, in economics, and in the other social sciences. The course develops statistical and mathematical techniques for analyzing random phenomena that arise in economics and business. Specific topics will include probability theory, sampling theory, estimation, hypothesis testing, and linear regression.

Prerequisites: Economics 5 or its equivalent; Mathematics 32 or its equivalent.

Textbook (required):
Sheldon M. Ross, Introductory Statistics, 4th Edition (Burlington, MA: Elsevier Academic Press, 2017) - all readings listed below are in the text.

The text is available at the bookstore; just click the Purchase Course materials link in Canvas.

Several times in the semester, we will supplement the material from the textbook with material from the on line resource Lectures on Probability, Statistics, and Econometrics .  Links to the relevant material are provided in the syllabus.

Statistical Package (optional):
Stata/SE 18 (for Windows, Mac, or Linux) - Stata Corporation. Tufts has an Enterprise license for Stata, so you can download and install Stata for free. More details about Stata including features and how to access the software can be found on the Stata product page on AccessTufts. Choose the version of Stata that is right for your operating system and follow the installation instructions on the page.

The Stata software package is also on many of the machines in the public-access computer labs on campus. In addition, you can access STATA through the Tufts Virtual Lab (instructions below).

To access STATA anytime/anywhere using the Tufts Virtual lab:
• Go to: https://access.tufts.edu/software/tts-virtual-lab-vdi
• Click on the orange Open box to access Tufts Virtual Lab.
• Click on HTML on the right to open this virtual desktop in your browser.
• Login with your credentials and then double click TTS Virtual Lab.
• This will make your screen look like you are sitting at a lab computer. (If you use a Mac, this will make your computer look like a PC.)
• When you first get into the lab computer, be sure to log in to Box. You'll be prompted to do that. You can then save your work to your Box folder.
• To access STATA, open the list of programs from the bottom right and find STATA 18.
• Click on the STATA 18 folder and then click on STATA 18 (64-bit).
• To access the course website from the virtual lab, open any web browser platform.
• You can also select to Install VMWare Horizon Client to your desktop. This will give you a virtual lab icon you can click whenever you want to access the virtual lab. If you do this, enter “vdi.it.tufts.edu” as the server when asked.
• When saving your files in the virtual lab, you must save them to your storage account on Box, which you can access here: https://access.tufts.edu/box

Graded Work:
1. Two term exams, each worth 22.5% of the grade. The first term exam will be given on October 16 and will cover the material on the first three sections of the reading list (through Chapter 4 in the text). The second term exam will be given on November 20 and will cover the material on the next four sections of the reading list (through Chapter 7 in the text).

2. There will be weekly problem sets worth 15% of the grade. The due dates for the problem sets will be indicated on each problem set, with the first problem set due on September 13. The problem sets will involve both assigned problems and computer exercises.

All problem sets are available in the Assignments area of Canvas. All problem sets must be submitted online through Canvas. No late problem sets will be accepted and all problem sets must be submitted online in Canvas.  Adobe Scan and Microsoft Lens (for Android) are good options for scanning your problem sets, but feel free to use whatever app is easiest for you.

Computation of problem set average - Because of the short-term illnesses may make it impossible to get every problem set in on time, I will drop your two lowest problem set scores when I compute the average. Since there are 13 problem sets, that means I will count your top 11 scores when I compute your average.

Late problem sets - As was noted above, the policy in the course is that late problem sets do not count. I will give all of you one free pass on that policy, with my o.k. If you submit the problem set after the adjusted submission time, it will not count as a late problem set and will be assigned a score of 0. That means that, with my o.k., your first late problem set will be counted as if it was submitted on time if it is submitted by the adjusted deadline. Additional late problem sets are subject to the class's late problem set policy and will be assigned a score of 0. And, if you submit a problem set late and you did not communicate with me and receive an adjusted submission time, that problem set will be counted as late and will be assigned a score of 0.

Reach out if you have any questions about these policies

You are strongly encouraged to collaborate in planning and thinking through solutions, but you must write up your own solutions without checking over your written solutions with another student.  Do not pass solutions to problem sets nor accept them from another student.  If you are ever in doubt, ask for clarification on what is and is not appropriate.

3. Final exam on Thursday, December 14 at 3:30 PM worth 40%. The final exam will cover all of the material in the course, with emphasis on the material after the second midterm.

Academic Integrity: Tufts holds its students strictly accountable for adherence to academic integrity. The consequences for violations can be severe. It is critical that you understand the requirements of ethical behavior and academic work as described in Tufts’ Academic Integrity handbook. If you ever have a question about the expectations concerning a particular assignment or project in this course, be sure to ask me for clarification. The Faculty of the School of Arts and Sciences and the School of Engineering are required to report suspected cases of academic integrity violations to the Dean of Student Affairs Office. If I suspect that you have cheated or plagiarized in this class, I must report the situation to the dean. If you are found to have violated the academic integrity policy on an assignment or and exam, you will receive a score of 0 on that assignment or exam.

Accommodations for Students with Disabilities: Tufts University values the diversity of our students, staff, and faculty, recognizing the important contribution each student makes to our unique community.  Tufts is committed to providing equal access and support to all qualified students through the provision of reasonable accommodations so that each student may fully participate in the Tufts experience. If you have a disability that requires reasonable accommodations, please contact the Student Accessibility Services office at Accessibility@tufts.edu or 617-627-4539 to make an appointment with an SAS representative to determine appropriate accommodations. Please be aware that accommodations cannot be enacted retroactively, making timeliness a critical aspect for their provision.

Accommodations for Students Who Are Ill: If you ill, please do not come to class. Let me know if you are ill or unable to attend class; if possible, I'll make an accommodation to enable you to keep up with the course. If you are ill on the day of an exam, the default plan will be for you to complete the exam virtually at the scheduled time. If you are too sick to complete the exam at the scheduled time, we will arrange for you to make up the exam as soon as you are well enough to do so.

Academic Support at the StAAR Center: The StAAR Center (formerly the Academic Resource Center and Student Accessibility Services) offers a variety of resources to all students (both undergraduate and graduate) in the Schools of Arts and Sciences, and Engineering, the SMFA, and The Fletcher School; services are free to all enrolled students. Students may make an appointment to work on any writing-related project or assignment, attend subject tutoring in a variety of disciplines, or meet with an academic coach to hone fundamental academic skills like time management or overcoming procrastination. Students can make an appointment for any of these services by visiting go.tufts.edu/TutorFinder, or by visiting go.tufts.edu/StAARCenter.

Policy on sharing. This course is designed for everyone to feel comfortable participating in discussion, asking questions, learning, and facilitating the learning of others. In order for that atmosphere to be maintained, the recordings of our conversations will only be shared with the enrolled students in the class (not posted publicly), and it is prohibited for any of us who have access to the video to share it outside the course. Similarly, I have specifically designed the syllabus, exams, handouts, and lectures for the people who are enrolled in the course this term and those may not be shared outside this course. It is against Tufts policy for anyone to share any content made available in this course including course syllabi, reading materials, problems sets, videos, handouts, and exams with anyone outside of the course without the express permission of the instructor. This especially includes any posting or sharing of videos or other recordings on publicly accessible websites or forums. Any such sharing or posting could violate copyright law or law that protects the privacy of student educational records.

Policy on the Use of AI: Since analytical and critical thinking skills are part of the learning outcomes of this course, I expect that all work students submit for this course will be their own. Additionally, students are not allowed to use any generative artificial intelligence tools (e.g. ChatGPT or Dall-E 2) at any stages of the work process, including preliminary ones. AI-generated submissions are not permitted and will be considered as violations of the academic integrity policy.

General comment: The only way to learn statistics is to work problems. Simply completing the problems on the problem sets is not enough. The problem sets include none of the exercises in the text. Solutions for the even-numbered exercises are in the back of the text. You should work as many of these exercises as you can. You should also work as many of the odd-numbered problems as you can. The solutions manual for the text is available in my office; it contains solutions for all of the problems (both even and odd). If you want to check an answer or if you are not sure how to solve a particular unassigned problem, please feel free to ask about the relevant problem during my office hours.

Class meetings: All of the class sessions will meet in Braker 1. Because you have short (mandatory) videos to watch before or after each class, I will begin the classes at 1:45 pm, but I will be available in the classroom at 1:30 pm to answer any questions that you have.

The recitation sessions will meet both in their regularly scheduled classroom (Bromfield-Pearson 3, JCC 280, Braker 226, or Braker 113) and in the computer lab in JCC 533. I will announce (in class on Monday and by e-mail) if the week's recitation sessions are in the classroom or the computer lab. The first recitation sessions in the computer lab will be on Thursday, September 7 and Friday, September 8

Course Outline and Assignments:
The schedule is tentative. Any adjustments to the schedule will be announced in class.

I. Introduction
September 6 - Chapter 1

II. Descriptive Statistics
September 6 - Secs. 3.1 - 3.4
September 11 - Secs. 3.5, 3.6, 2.2, 2.4
September 13- Sec. 2.3
September 18 - Secs. 2.5, 3.7, 12.1 - 12.3

III. Basics of Probability: Axioms of Probability, Counting, and Bayes' Theorem
September 20 - Secs. 4.1, 4.2
September 25 - Sec. 4.3
September 27 - Secs. 4.4, 4.7
October 2 - Sec. 4.5
October 4 - Sec. 4.6

October 16 - FIRST TERM EXAM

IV. Random Variables
October 11 - Secs. 5.1, 5.2, pp. 233-235 and Conditional Probability Distributions from Lectures on Probability, Statistics, and Econometrics
October 18 - Secs. 5.3 and Conditional Expectation from Lectures on Probability, Statistics, and Econometrics
October 23 - Secs. 5.4, 5.5.1, and Independent random variables from Lectures on Probability, Statistics, and Econometrics

V. Special Discrete Distributions
October 25 - Sec. 5.6
October 30 - Secs. 5.7, 5.8

VI. Continuous Distributions
November 1 - Secs. 6.1, 6.2
November 6 - Secs. 6.3 - 6.7

VIII. The Central Limit Theorem and Distributions of Statistics
November 8 - Secs. 7.1 - 7.4
November 13 - Secs. 7.5 - 7.6

November 20 - SECOND TERM EXAM

IX. Estimation
November 15 - Secs. 8.1 - 8.4, 12.3 and  Point Estimation from Lectures on Probability, Statistics, and Econometrics
November 27 - Secs. 8.5 - 8.7
November 29 - Secs. 10.4, 12.3

X. Hypothesis Testing
December 4 - Secs. 9.1 - 9.3
December 6 - Secs. 9.4, 9.5
December 11 - Secs. 10.1 - 10.4, 12.4 - 12.5

December 14 - FINAL EXAM